Where's Hugo?

from the WSJ

CARACAS—Venezuela's voluble and ubiquitous President Hugo Chávez hasn't returned to the public eye after a surgery in Cuba that has friends and foes alike speculating about the state of his health and the future of his rule.

Mr. Chávez has been in Cuba since June 8, when he was felled by a pelvic abscess for which he underwent an operation two days later. Soon after, Venezuelan officials said the flamboyant leader was in good health but would recuperate in Havana for a "few days."

Those few days have stretched to 11, punctuated by false alarms over the date of his return. On Monday, a ruling party lawmaker said Mr. Chávez was hours from touching down in Caracas and urged his supporters to prepare a "tremendous" welcome for him. The claim was quickly refuted on the Twitter account of Venezuela's Communications Minister Andres Izarra.

On Tuesday, Mr. Chávez made another virtual appearance. In a statement posted on Mr. Izarra's Twitter account, he lamented the death of another Venezuelan official who had sought medical treatment in Cuba.

"We don't know very much about [Chávez's] health, there is no official news, only partial reports," said Chávez critic Teodoro Petkoff, a former presidential candidate and current editor of the opposition newspaper Tal Cual.

Mr. Chávez raised concerns when he said, during a call to a Venezuelan television station two days after his operation, that there were no "malignant" signs found, a former top Venezuelan health official said.

The former official, who asked not to be named, pointed out that a pelvic abscess—a pus-filled cavity that can result from injury or infection—is a reaction to a condition. "His choice of words was a red flag," the official said.

The former official also said there was a possibility that Mr. Chávez would be hospitalized when he returned to Venezuela, another potential sign of the severity of his ailment. If it was a matter of simply treating an abscess, Mr. Chávez would likely not need a hospital at that point, the official said.

Once a slender tank commander and would-be major-league baseball pitcher, Mr. Chávez has cultivated an image as a health-conscious sportsman. But 12 years in power have taken their toll.

Mr. Chávez, 56 years old, has gained a lot of weight since his days on the mound, works long hours and is known for drinking quarts of coffee daily. Nevertheless, he seemed poised to resume a full schedule in early June after a knee injury had sidelined him, when he left Venezuela for visits to Brazil, Ecuador and Cuba.

In Cuba, he suffered acute pain during a meeting with former Cuban leader Fidel Castro and was rushed into surgery.

Since then, Mr. Chávez has been nearly invisible, except for a phone call into a Venezuelan television station on June 12, two days after his operation, and photographs of Mr. Chávez wearing a tracksuit in the colors of the Venezuelan flag as he is flanked by Fidel and Raul Castro, published in the state newspaper Granma on June 18.

In a three-paragraph note, Granma assured its readers that Mr. Chávez was in close communication with top Venezuelan officials and was "on top of the principal issues of his country."

The mystery surrounding Mr. Chávez's health is a throwback to the Cold War secrecy which persists in Cuba, one of the last Communist governments left standing.

In Cuba, the health of Mr. Castro and other important figures is treated as a state secret. Five years after Mr. Castro was forced to step down from power after undergoing an emergency operation, the exact nature of his illness has never been divulged by the Cuban state.

During normal times, Mr. Chávez dominates Venezuela's airwaves and public space. He is prone to break into television broadcasts of baseball games and Venezuelans' favorite soap operas to opine at length about matters such as local news events and the latest manifestation of U.S. imperialism.

Perhaps following Mr. Castro's advice to get some rest, Mr. Chávez has been noticeably silent about the week's events in Venezuela, where 5,000 troops are fighting to squelch a prison rebellion that so far has taken some 40 lives.

Romer Guevara, a 41-year-old court bailiff, said he didn't have any problem with Chávez governing from Cuba while recuperating. Mr. Guevara, who said he was politically neutral, added there was one thing he is sure he hasn't missed during Chávez's absence. "We don't like those long speeches," Mr. Guevara said. "We get tired of all that talking. He interrupts our shows all the time. He cuts in all the time when I'm watching baseball or a basketball game."

But Mr. Chávez has continued to enact major legislation from Havana, over the complaints of opposition lawmakers who unsuccessfully insisted he cede presidential duties during the extended and unplanned absence from Venezuela.

A long absence from Caracas would raise political uncertainty as the nation prepares for presidential elections next year. Mr. Chávez has no heir apparent, and a long absence due to health reasons could touch off a succession struggle between prominent Chavistas who belong to different and competing factions.

"It's revealing how Venezuela depends on one man rule," said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank. "There is nobody else. He makes all the decisions. There's a real risk the government won't work if he's out for a long time."

Mr. Chávez is the most prominent existing example of a common Latin American phenomenon—the caudillo—rulers who base their legitimacy not on any sort of allegiance to institutions, but rather on developing a strong and emotional bond with Latin America's masses, especially the poor. During his decade-long rule, Mr. Chávez, who combines many of the qualities of a television evangelist with the authoritarian values of a soldier, has weakened many of Venezuela's already feeble institutions.

Now his illness could weaken his movement as it prepares to face a determined opposition in elections.

"Its a classic case of caudillos where there is no heir apparent," said Eric Olson, a Latin American expert at Washington's Woodrow Wilson Center. "His emphasis has been on building up the caudillo and on tearing down institutions."

Mr. Chávez' health is no doubt a major concern in Cuba. Any instability in Venezuela would have a major impact on the economically distressed island, which depends on cut-rate Venezuelan oil and on the personal connection struck with Mr. Chávez, for its economic survival.

Some analysts believe Mr. Chávez' long absence could be a sign his government is entering a crisis, especially if his health deteriorates. "There's nobody that one can see that can take his place," said Claudio Loser, president of Centennial Group Latin America advisory firm and former head of Western Hemisphere affairs for the International Monetary Fund. "As strong as his movement is...it is very much caudillo-oriented, very much linked to the leader in power."

But others believe a healthy Mr. Chávez will soon be back giving orders from Venezuela's presidential palace. The down time in Cuba will not be long enough to disrupt Chávez's legislative agenda or his 2012 reelection bid, says Boris Segura, senior Latin American economist at Nomura Securities.