Sunday, December 30, 2018

#FreeBillySix

Our son Billy Six was arrested in Venezuela on 17.11.2018 by the Venezuelan secret service SEBIN at the beach hotel "Los Taques" in Punto Fijo, Venezuela, and has since been detained in the intelligence prison of the SEBIN "El Helicoide" in Caracas.

On 18.11.2018 he was told that he should be charged with "espionage", "rebellion" and "violation of security zones" before a military court. These allegations are without foundation.

He has been denied any contact with a lawyer, German Embassy or family since his detention.

The German Embassy in Caracas has been trying in vain to get at least a visitor's permit. So far, the embassy has only confirmed the arrest of Billy orally.

Our son has reported as a freelance journalist on the conditions in Venezuela. We are very worried that in this way he should now be locked away for a long time.

Billy Six had become infected with dengue fever before he was imprisoned. The medicine were taken from him during his detention. Prolonged detention without medical care could cost him his life.

Since Thursday, 13.12.2018 our son Billy has gone on hunger strike to enforce at least his most elementary rights.

We are the parents of Billy and fight for his immediate release from the illegal and unlawful detention. To unite the forces, gather all the information in one place and create a platform for all to support Billy, we have set up a Facebook page. Here are all the details of the circumstances, the charges and his hunger strike.

We would be happy if you support Billy by liking this page.

In addition, Billy is greatly helped if his case becomes known worldwide, putting pressure on those responsible in Venezuela to force Billy's release. Therefore, we also look forward to sharing the page and the latest information.

Thank you so much
Ute and Edward Six
(Parents of Billy Six)

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Saturday, September 8, 2018

Anti-Trumpers Conspire to Keep Venezuela Socialist...

...leak meetings to NY Times.

from the New York Times, "Trump Administration Discussed Coup Plans With Rebel Venezuelan Officers"
The Trump administration held secret meetings with rebellious military officers from Venezuela over the last year to discuss their plans to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro, according to American officials and a former Venezuelan military commander who participated in the talks.

Establishing a clandestine channel with coup plotters in Venezuela was a big gamble for Washington, given its long history of covert intervention across Latin America. Many in the region still deeply resent the United States for backing previous rebellions, coups and plots in countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, Brazil and Chile, and for turning a blind eye to the abuses military regimes committed during the Cold War.

The White House, which declined to answer detailed questions about the talks, said in a statement that it was important to engage in “dialogue with all Venezuelans who demonstrate a desire for democracy” in order to “bring positive change to a country that has suffered so much under Maduro.”

But one of the Venezuelan military commanders involved in the secret talks was hardly an ideal figure to help restore democracy: He is on the American government’s own sanctions list of corrupt officials in Venezuela.

He and other members of the Venezuelan security apparatus have been accused by Washington of a wide range of serious crimes, including torturing critics, jailing hundreds of political prisoners, wounding thousands of civilians, trafficking drugs and collaborating with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States.

American officials eventually decided not to help the plotters, and the coup plans stalled. But the Trump administration’s willingness to meet several times with mutinous officers intent on toppling a president in the hemisphere could backfire politically.

Most Latin American leaders agree that Venezuela’s president, Mr. Maduro, is an increasingly authoritarian ruler who has effectively ruined his country’s economy, leading to extreme shortages of food and medicine. The collapse has set off an exodus of desperate Venezuelans who are spilling over borders, overwhelming their neighbors.

Even so, Mr. Maduro has long justified his grip on Venezuela by claiming that Washington imperialists are actively trying to depose him, and the secret talks could provide him with ammunition to chip away at the region’s nearly united stance against him. “This is going to land like a bomb” in the region, said Mari Carmen Aponte, who served as the top diplomat overseeing Latin American affairs in the final months of the Obama administration.

Beyond the coup plot, Mr. Maduro’s government has already fended off several small-scale attacks, including salvos from a helicopter last year and exploding drones as he gave a speech in August. The attacks have added to the sense that the president is vulnerable.

Venezuelan military officials sought direct access to the American government during Barack Obama’s presidency, only to be rebuffed, officials said.

Then in August of last year, President Trump declared that the United States had a “military option” for Venezuela — a declaration that drew condemnation from American allies in the region but encouraged rebellious Venezuelan military officers to reach out to Washington once again.

“It was the commander in chief saying this now,” the former Venezuelan commander on the sanctions list said in an interview, speaking on condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisals by the Venezuelan government. “I’m not going to doubt it when this was the messenger.”

In a series of covert meetings abroad, which began last fall and continued this year, the military officers told the American government that they represented a few hundred members of the armed forces who had soured on Mr. Maduro’s authoritarianism.

The officers asked the United States to supply them with encrypted radios, citing the need to communicate securely, as they developed a plan to install a transitional government to run the country until elections could be held.

American officials did not provide material support, and the plans unraveled after a recent crackdown that led to the arrest of dozens of the plotters.

Relations between the United States and Venezuela have been strained for years. The two have not exchanged ambassadors since 2010. After Mr. Trump took office, his administration increased sanctions against top Venezuelan officials, including Mr. Maduro himself, his vice president and other top officials in the government.

The account of the clandestine meetings and the policy debates preceding them is drawn from interviews with 11 current and former American officials, as well as the former Venezuelan commander. He said at least three distinct groups within the Venezuelan military had been plotting against the Maduro government.

One established contact with the American government by approaching the United States Embassy in a European capital. When this was reported back to Washington, officials at the White House were intrigued but apprehensive. They worried that the meeting request could be a ploy to surreptitiously record an American official appearing to conspire against the Venezuelan government, officials said.

But as the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela worsened last year, American officials felt that having a clearer picture of the plans and the men who aspired to oust Mr. Maduro was worth the risk.

“After a lot of discussion, we agreed we should listen to what they had to say,” said a senior administration official who was not authorized to speak about the secret talks.

The administration initially considered dispatching Juan Cruz, a veteran Central Intelligence Agency official who recently stepped down as the White House’s top Latin America policymaker. But White House lawyers said it would be more prudent to send a career diplomat instead.

The American envoy was instructed to attend the meetings “purely on listening mode,” and was not authorized to negotiate anything of substance on the spot, according to the senior administration official.

After the first meeting, which took place in the fall of 2017, the diplomat reported that the Venezuelans didn’t appear to have a detailed plan and had showed up at the encounter hoping the Americans would offer guidance or ideas, officials said.

The former Venezuelan commander said that the rebellious officers never asked for an American military intervention. “I never agreed, nor did they propose, to do a joint operation,” he said.

He claimed that he and his comrades considered striking last summer, when the government suspended the powers of the legislature and installed a new national assembly loyal to Mr. Maduro. But he said they aborted the plan, fearing it would lead to bloodshed.

They later planned to take power in March, the former officer said, but that plan leaked. Finally, the dissidents looked to the May 20 election, during which Mr. Maduro was re-elected, as a new target date. But again, word got out and the plotters held their fire.

It is unclear how many of these details the coup planners shared with the Americans. But there is no indication that Mr. Maduro knew the mutinous officers were talking to the Americans at all.

For any of the plots to have worked, the former commander said, he and his comrades believed they needed to detain Mr. Maduro and other top government figures simultaneously. To do that, he added, the rebel officers needed a way to communicate securely. They made their request during their second meeting with the American diplomat, which took place last year.

The American diplomat relayed the request to Washington, where senior officials turned it down, American officials said.

“We were frustrated,” said the former Venezuelan commander. “There was a lack of follow-through. They left me waiting.”

The American diplomat then met the coup plotters a third time early this year, but the discussions did not result in a promise of material aid or even a clear signal that Washington endorsed the rebels’ plans, according to the Venezuelan commander and several American officials.

Still, the Venezuelan plotters could view the meetings as tacit approval of their plans, argued Peter Kornbluh, a historian at the National Security Archive at George Washington University.

“The United States always has an interest in gathering intelligence on potential changes of leadership in governments,” Mr. Kornbluh said. “But the mere presence of a U.S. official at such a meeting would likely be perceived as encouragement.”

In its statement, the White House called the situation in Venezuela “a threat to regional security and democracy” and said that the Trump administration would continue to strengthen a coalition of “like-minded, and right-minded, partners from Europe to Asia to the Americas to pressure the Maduro regime to restore democracy in Venezuela.”

American officials have openly discussed the possibility that Venezuela’s military could take action.

On Feb. 1, Rex W. Tillerson, who was secretary of state at the time, delivered a speech in which he said the United States had not “advocated for regime change or removal of President Maduro.” Yet, responding to a question afterward, Mr. Tillerson raised the potential for a military coup.

“When things are so bad that the military leadership realizes that it just can’t serve the citizens anymore, they will manage a peaceful transition,” he said.

Days later, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who has sought to shape the Trump administration’s approach toward Latin America, wrote a series of Twitter posts that encouraged dissident members of the Venezuelan armed forces to topple their commander in chief.

“Soldiers eat out of garbage cans & their families go hungry in Venezuela while Maduro & friends live like kings & block humanitarian aid,” Mr. Rubio wrote. He then added: “The world would support the Armed Forces in #Venezuela if they decide to protect the people & restore democracy by removing a dictator.”

In a speech in April, when he was still White House policy chief for Latin America, Mr. Cruz issued a message to the Venezuelan military. Referring to Mr. Maduro as a “madman,” Mr. Cruz said all Venezuelans should “urge the military to respect the oath they took to perform their functions. Honor your oath.”

As the crisis in Venezuela worsened in recent years, American officials debated the pros and cons of opening lines of dialogue with rebellious factions of the military.

“There were differences of opinion,” said Ms. Aponte, the former top Latin America diplomat under Mr. Obama. “There were people who had a lot of faith in the idea that they could bring about stability, help distribute food, work on practical stuff.”

But others — including Ms. Aponte — saw considerable risk in building bridges with leaders of a military that, in Washington’s assessment, has become a pillar of the cocaine trade and human rights abuses.

Roberta Jacobson, a former ambassador to Mexico who preceded Ms. Aponte as the top State Department official for Latin America policy, said that while Washington has long regarded the Venezuelan military as “widely corrupt, deeply involved in narcotics trafficking and very unsavory,” she saw merit in establishing a back channel with some of them.

“Given the broader breakdown in institutions in Venezuela, there was a feeling that — while they were not necessarily the answer — any kind of democratic resolution would have had to have the military on board,” said Ms. Jacobson, who retired from the State Department this year. “The idea of hearing from actors in those places, no matter how unsavory they may be, is integral to diplomacy.”

But whatever the rationale, holding discussions with coup plotters could set off alarms in a region with a list of infamous interventions: the Central Intelligence Agency’s failed Bay of Pigs invasion to overthrow Fidel Castro as leader of Cuba in 1961; the American-supported coup in Chile in 1973, which led to the long military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet; and the Reagan administration’s covert support of right-wing rebels known as the contras in Nicaragua in the 1980s.

In Venezuela, a coup in 2002 briefly deposed Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez. The United States knew a plot was being hatched but warned against it, according to a classified document that was later made public. The coup took place anyway and the George W. Bush administration opened a channel to the new leader. Officials then backed away from the new government after popular anger rose against the coup and countries in the region loudly denounced it. Mr. Chávez was reinstated as president.

In the latest coup plot, the number of military figures connected to the plan dwindled from a high of about 300 to 400 last year to about half that after a crackdown this year by Mr. Maduro’s government.

The former Venezuelan military officer worries that the 150 or so comrades who have been detained are probably being tortured. He lamented that the United States did not supply the mutineers with radios, which he believes could have changed the country’s history.

“I’m disappointed,” he said. “But I’m the least affected. I’m not a prisoner.”

Thursday, August 9, 2018

Venezuelans to Trinidad

Venezuelans Head to Peru

Ecuador declares state of emergency over Venezuelan migrants at border

Many Venezuelans said the consulate ordered border agents to stamp passports allowing for only a two-day stay, despite immigration laws allowing Venezuelans to stay in the country for as many as 180 continuous days
from Reuters
QUITO, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Ecuador on Wednesday declared a state of emergency in three provinces due to an unusually high volume of Venezuelan migrants crossing over the northern border with Colombia after fleeing the OPEC nation's economic crisis.

Venezuela's hyperinflation and chronic product shortages have fueled an exodus of citizens who typically travel by land via Colombia, often continuing south toward Andean nations including Ecuador, Peru and Chile.

"The government of Ecuador has declared a state of emergency related to human migration in the provinces of Carchi, Pichincha and El Oro to provide urgent attention to the Venezuelan migrants on the northern border," the foreign ministry said in a statement.

It added that Ecuador this week began receiving 4,200 Venezuelan migrants arriving each day. It did not say how many had been arriving before or why the numbers had increased.

The state of emergency, which will last for the month of August, is meant to speed up the deployment of doctors and social workers to attend to the migrants' needs, as well as police to provide support for immigration proceedings.

The statement added agencies including the International Organization for Migration and the U.N. Refugee Agency, UNHCR, would also help in the effort.

Saturday, July 28, 2018

Thursday, July 5, 2018

Get Ready for a Flood from the South...

Invasion? You should be so lucky!

Trump repeatedly suggested Venezuela invasion, stunning top aides – report
from The Guardian
The administration officials are said to have taken turns in trying to talk the president out of the idea in August of last year

Donald Trump repeatedly raised the possibility of invading Venezuela in talks with his top aides at the White House, according to a new report.

Trump brought up the subject of an invasion in public in August last year, saying: “We have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option, if necessary.” But the president’s musings about the possibility of a US invasion were more extensive and persistent than that public declaration, according to the Associated Press.

The previous day Trump reportedly took his top officials by surprise in an Oval Office meeting, asking why the US could not intervene to remove the government of Nicolás Maduro on the grounds that Venezuela’s political and economic unraveling represented a threat to the region.

Quoting an unnamed senior administration official, the AP report said the suggestion stunned those present at the meeting, which included the then national security adviser, HR McMaster, and secretary of state, Rex Tillerson. Both have since left the administration.

The administration officials are said to have taken turns in trying to talk him out of the idea, pointing out that any such military action would alienate Latin American allies who had supported the US policy of punitive sanctions on the Maduro regime.

Their arguments do not seem to have dissuaded the president.

A grim-faced Tillerson stood alongside Trump the next day at his New Jersey golf course at Bedminster as the president warmed to his theme.

“We have many options for Venezuela, this is our neighbour,” Trump said.

“We’re all over the world and we have troops all over the world in places that are very, very far away, Venezuela is not very far away and the people are suffering and dying. We have many options for Venezuela including a possible military option if necessary.”

The White House announced later it had refused to take a call from Maduro. The Venezuelan defence minister, Vladimir Padrino, described Trump’s threat as an “act of craziness” and “supreme extremism”.

In the weeks that followed, Trump remained preoccupied with the idea of an invasion, according to AP. Shortly after the Bedminister remarks, he raised the issue with the Colombian president, Juan Manuel Santos, and then brought it up again at that year’s UN general assembly in September, at a private dinner with allied Latin American states.

At that dinner, Trump made clear he was ignoring the advice of his aides.

“My staff told me not to say this,” Trump said and then asked the other leaders at the table in turn, if they were sure they didn’t want a military solution.

McMaster finally succeeding in persuading Trump of the dangers of an invasion, the report said, and the president’s interest in the notion subsided.

Trump’s approach to military intervention has been erratic. He has been insistent on bringing troops back from Syria, and his administration is pushing to draw down troops in Europe. But Venezuela is not the only country he has threatened directly. Last year, he warned North Korea of impending “fire and fury” and total destruction if the country threatened the US with its nuclear weapons and missiles. After his summit with Kim Jong-un last month in Singapore, however, Trump presented military conflict as unthinkable, pointing out it would cost millions of lives.

Monday, June 25, 2018

Meanwhile, In The Failed State Of Venezuela...

from Forbes
The Socialists United of Venezuela and its president Nicolas Maduro continue to run this once relatively prosperous South American oil nation into the ground. People are still starving. Hospitals are short staffed. People of means have moved to Madrid or Miami. People of no means are hightailing it to Colombia and Brazil. If this unfolding disaster were taking place in Washington., one would probably blame the Russians. But this is Caracas, so it must be the CIAs fault.

At this point, the country of Venezuela is being held together with duct tape and God's will.

Oil production is still dismal at best, collapsing at worse. Wall Street bond lords have been waiting for at least a year now for the economy to get so bad, that PSUV leaders kick Maduro to the curve. But so what? If they did, who would lead? Surely there is scant evidence that the party of Hugo Chavez can save Venezueal from itself.

The latest cabinet reshuffle was just noise as Maduro simply realigned his power base to insulate himself against a palace coup from within the ranks. Oil prices are higher than they have been in years, but Venezuela keeps getting worse. Its economy is producing quadruple digit inflation. Its central bank is useless against it. The currency, the Bolivar, is utterly worthless. Nobody wants it.

"It’s all about petrodollars and whether there are sufficient (funds) for rental and corruption income to leverage military support," says Sioben Morden, the managing director in charge of monitoring Venezuela's life support systems over at Nomura Securities in Manhattan.

The top tier military still has power at oil firm PdVSA, but it’s going to be increasingly difficult to trickle down funds to the mid-level officers and public workers.

The regime change theory which Morden and other hedge funds holding PdVSA have been wargaming for over a year is dependent on the assumption that Maduro fails when the petrodollars are tapped out. He needs them to keep PdVSA oil workers, the guys with the red hats and the red shirts that can always be counted on to shout, sing, wave Venezuela flags during Maduro rallies citing foreigners for his country's woes.

Investors should no lonnger assume that negative headlines will eventually spell the end of PSUV. They have hunkered down. Didn't you know? Venezuela is basically a dictatorship now.

PdVSA has defaulted on its bonds.

HIV patients are unable to get medication to keep them alive.

People are selling garbage to make ends meet.

This is a shame.

This is all on PSUV.

Latest oil industry data from May reaffirmed the roughly 50,000 barrels per day decline in oil production. PdVSA produced around 1.4 million barrels per day in May.

The Baker Hughes rig count declined to 28 in May. It’s been years of mismanagement and underinvestment, says Morden, but the recent production drops reflect a total lack of maintenance, no spare parts from the import markets, weak refining capacity and technical personnel -- many of whom have fled the coop to Miami-Dade County or Bogota.

Moreover, there are financing constraints on the Venezuelan government by the U.S. Maduro will say that this is why his economy is getting worse. But these sanctions are less than two years old and Venezuela's economy has been in a free fall now for at least three years.

ConocoPhillips' May 13 seizure of PdVSA assets on the tiny island of Curacao may exacerbate the decline for June production now. Argus media is suggesting production of somwhere between 1 and 1.2 million bpd; so another fall in oil.

Meanwhile, the threat of lawsuits from bondholders is still on hold -- lucky for Venezuelans -- as investors assess the prospects for new management and whether recovery value is a function of debt restructuring or either offloading or acquiring equity in offshore assets, be it oil fields, ships, or refineries.

Wall Street bond lords are likely to sue PdVSA if World Bank investment settlement claimants are more aggressive on pursuing Venezuela's offshore oil assets. If this keeps up, Venezuela's crisis would have forced them to do the thing they fear doing the most -- giving the family jewels over to big bad Yankee capitalists. They put themselves in this spot. Their investors did not force them there.

"It’s going to be increasingly difficult for PdVSA to continue to operate under these legal threats," says Morden.

Those threats may be a more serious problem for PSUV's rulers than its declining collection of petrodollars.

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Oil's Well That Ends Well

from UPI
June 19 (UPI) -- Ahead of what could be pivotal talks among OPEC members, production from founding member Venezuela could hit new lows soon, an industry report found.

State-backed oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, known commonly as PDVSA, notified 11 of its international customers earlier this month that it wouldn't be able to meet contractual obligations of 1.5 million barrels per day. According to commodity pricing group S&P Global Platts, PDVSA had only 694,000 barrels per day available for shipments.

"As workers have fled the country, state-owned oil company PDVSA has had a difficult time maintaining crude output, let alone boosting production," its report, emailed to UPI on Tuesday, read. "PDVSA's refining sector has also deteriorated on a lack of funds and manpower."

PDVSA is facing mounting obligations to its partners, notably ConocoPhillips. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions pressures have made it difficult to do business with Venezuelan entities, including PDVSA. A digital currency embraced by President Nicolas Maduro was banned under U.S. actions.

Secondary sources reported to OPEC that Venezuela produced around 1.4 million barrels per day last month, down by more than half a million barrels per day from last year's average. OPEC ministers last this week are expected to decide to put more oil on the market to buffer against the chronic shortages from Venezuela, though the Maduro administration is opposed to those considerations.

Higher oil prices support oil-exporting nations and prices would drop if OPEC decides to make a supply-side move later this week.

According to the International Energy Agency, Venezuelan production could drop to as low as 800,000 barrels per day, though Platts expects output to say above the 1 million barrels per day mark through next year.

The country's rig count, a loose barometer of future production, was 28 last month, down about half from the start of the year.

"PDVSA has experienced similar drops in the past," the Platts report read. "In the 1980s, the number of rigs fell to less than 30, causing crude production to fall to 1.3 million barrels per day."

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

OAS Votes Venezuelan Government 'Illegitimate'

OAS adopts resolution, could bring suspension of Venezuela
from the Miami Herlad
The Organization of American States on Tuesday narrowly adopted a resolution that could trigger a process for suspending Venezuela at a later date if enough votes are gathered.

The language sponsored by the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Chile, Guatemala, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru was adopted with 19 votes in favor, four against and 11 abstentions after prolonged negotiations during the organization's General Assembly meeting in Washington. The number of votes required was 18.

The resolution was adopted a day after U.S. Vice President Mike Pence had asked officials from 22 countries to begin the process of suspending Venezuela from membership and participation in the OAS.

"The OAS must stand for freedom. And now is the time," Pence said Monday night.

Venezuela's foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, responded by saying the officials from the countries who voted in favor "cannot call (Pence) today and tell him 'mission accomplished.' There are only 19 votes."

Carlos Trujillo, U.S. ambassador to the OAS, acknowledged that 19 is still far from the 24 votes required to launch a process that could end in a suspension of the South American country, but he said that President Nicolas Maduro "only has three friends."

Arreaza said the resolution opens the door to all options, including a military intervention.

"Whoever supported this resolution also support the possibility of a military intervention in Venezuela," he said. "It is up to your conscience."

The resolution calls on member states to implement politic and economic measures "to assist in the restoration of democratic order in Venezuela."

The document also declares that the victory of Maduro in the May presidential election lacks legitimacy, a position already adopted separately by at least 15 countries of the hemisphere.

It is the strongest statement adopted so far by the countries of the OAS about the Venezuelan crisis since its secretary-general said in 2016 that the South American country had suffered "grave alterations of democratic order."

At the General Assembly last year in Cancun, foreign ministers from throughout the Americas were unable to get enough votes for a relatively strongly worded proposal calling on the Venezuelan government to reconsider its call for an assembly to re-write the constitution and to respect the separation of powers.

OAS members have kicked out only two nations before. Communist Cuba was expelled in 1962 and Honduras was suspended briefly following a 2009 military coup. The ban of Cuba was lifted in 2009, but the communist island rejected rejoining the hemispheric group.

Friday, June 1, 2018

The Maduro regime stands accused by a damning OAS report — finally

from the Miami Herald
The Organization of American States has confirmed in a 400-page report what millions of Venezuelans, living in that country or in exile, have long known.

In the scathing report, the influential organization accuses the Venezuelan government under President Nicolás Maduro of committing crimes against humanity, setting the stage for a potential investigation by the International Criminal Court.

Finally.

Last year, an OAS resolution condemning Venezuela lost by three votes. Now, its members can compensate for that failure by officially jump-starting an ICC probe. The report’s chilling findings demand it: At least 131 Venezuelans were killed by soldiers and paramilitaries during last year’s street protests. Worse yet, the report says that the Maduro government carried out more than 8,000 extrajudicial executions.

After spending months reviewing evidence and listening to witness testimonies, the OAS found that there are more than 1,300 political prisoners in Venezuela, and that torture is carried out in the country’s appalling prisons — electric shock, beatings, burnings and sexual and psychological abuse.

The report is a devastating blow to the world image of a repressive regime that remains in power. It concludes that there is enough damning evidence for the International Criminal Court to investigate the Maduro government — as if more evidence were needed.

It’s a sad irony that Maduro’s chavismo government has strayed so far from the principles of justice and solidarity that Hugo Chávez’s movement tried to embrace in its earliest days. The OAS report unmasks a repressive regime that does not hesitate to use despicable methods to hold onto power and squash opponents.

And what will Maduro and his followers do now that the OAS has denounced his government and threatens to embarrass it with a probe on the world stage? That’s simple. They will try to remain in power at any cost, strangling the opposition and continuing to govern with illegitimate institutions such as the National Constituent Assembly, created to supplant the National Assembly.

To its credit, the United States has long denounced Maduro’s government. It has also sanctioned high-ranking government officials for corruption and crimes such as drug trafficking.

Other nations are getting on board. The government of Canada, for instance, has just imposed sanctions, this week accusing 14 Venezuelan officials of undermining democracy and freezing any assets they have in Canada. Cilia Flores is among the officials that Ottawa has sanctioned. She is Maduro’s wife.

International scrutiny has intensified since the controversial May 20 presidential election in which Maduro all but declared himself the winner. The United States, the European Union and most Latin American countries did not recognize these elections, carried out to give a veneer of legality when Maduro allowed a sham candidate to oppose him.

Now, with the damning report in hand, it’s imperative that at least one member of the OAS request a formal ICC investigation of Maduro and his far-reaching authoritarian abuses. Earlier this year, the ICC’s prosecutor opened a preliminary probe of Maduro. But an OAS member must ask for an investigation for it to have any heft.

In light of the OAS report, the United States should step up and lead in persuading fellow members to present a united front to the ICC — and to all those who value democracy.

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

The Decline and Fall of a Once Glorious Republic


from Investors Business Daily
Venezuela trudged further down its road to serfdom when a sham election on May 20 returned Nicolas Maduro to the presidency for another six-year term. Venezuela's experiment with democratic socialism has now run its course from early optimism through economic dysfunction and now ever-closer to political tyranny.

A mere 20 years ago Hugo Chavez ran for president on a populist campaign promising socialist economic policies. He won the 1998 election with 56.2% of the vote in what was considered a fair election overseen by international observers, including former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

Venezuela quickly became the poster child for successful socialism. Unlike the other socialist governments, Venezuela's was democratically elected and political freedoms were maintained. Incomes rose; poverty, illiteracy, and inequality all fell. Venezuela seemed to deliver socialism's promise unlike anywhere else in the world.

Leftists in the United States praised Chavez after his death in 2013. Salon.com claimed "Chavez racked up an economic record that a legacy-obsessed American president could only dream of achieving."

Bernie Sanders, Oliver Stone, Michael Moore and many others praised Chavez for his leadership and Venezuela's economic achievements.

Except it was all a mirage. Venezuela sits atop the world's largest proven oil reserves and Chavez cashed in on strong global oil prices. His socialist policies, meanwhile, caused dysfunction throughout the economy.

A 2016 study by economists Kevin Grier and Norman Maynard, published in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, compared Venezuela's economic performance under Chavez to what it "likely" would have been if Chavez "had not been elected to the Venezuelan Presidency in 1998" and the existing policies had remained in place.

Their conclusion: "Although average incomes rose somewhat during his time as president, they lagged far behind where they might have been if Chavez had not taken office."

Venezuela Dies


The same held true in other key measures, such as life expectancy, infant mortality and poverty. Life expectancy improved, but by less than it should have. Infant mortality and poverty decreased, but by no more than would have been expected without Chavez's policies.

Venezuela's economic mirage collapsed when oil prices tanked and revealed an economy incapable of feeding itself.

The average Venezuelan lost 24 pounds last year — 19 the year before. Agricultural production is way down: rice, corn, and coffee by 60% over the last decade.

The cattle herd decreased 38% over the last five years. When Chavez came to power, there were more than 800,000 private businesses. Today, fewer than 230,000 remain.

Chavez's successor, Maduro, has resorted to the printing press to "pay" for import supplies. As a result inflation is skyrocketing. In March and April alone, inflation registered 18,000%.

Meanwhile, price controls make it unprofitable to produce anything. The result is the downward spiral Venezuela finds itself in.

It's hard to imagine any sitting president anywhere getting reelected when voters are literally starving amid hyperinflation. Yet Maduro claimed victory with a record 68% of the vote.

Not surprising, since the government had banned the largest opposition parties and had violently repressed anti-government protests. The election was a fraud.

Many voters went directly from the voting booth to nearby "Red Spots," where the government checked their IDs and handed out food rations.

The connection was not lost on them. It's hard to maintain your political independence when the ruling party hands out your food and determines your economic future.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek spelled out the intimate connection between economic freedom and political freedom in his 1944 book, "The Road to Serfdom."

He argued that only within a capitalist system is democracy possible and that when a country "becomes dominated by a collectivist creed, democracy will inevitably destroy itself."

Venezuela's democratic socialism is no more. Its socialist policies created economic dysfunction while curtailing economic freedoms. Now its citizens are losing their political freedoms while Venezuela joins the long list of totalitarian socialist regimes.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Can Venezuela Survive Six More Years of Incompetence?

from the Miami Herald
As Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro seeks another six-year term on Sunday, it’s clear that he — like the rest of the country — is running on empty.

Oil-rich and wealthy just a few years ago, Venezuela today is being gutted by hyperinflation, food shortages, collapsing infrastructure, international sanctions, growing protests and an exodus of the desperate.

Maduro, 55, is expected to win Sunday’s vote, which is being decried as fraudulent by the international community, amid opposition calls for a boycott.

And analysts expect that will mean more pain, trouble and repression for the struggling South American country.

“Nations don’t reach bottom. There is always further to fall,” Phil Gunson, an analyst with the Crisis Group, said at a conference at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center in Washington, D.C., Thursday. “But it does seem like life as we know it in Venezuela will be impossible unless there is a radical change.”

And yet it’s hard to imagine how that change might come.

On the campaign trail, Maduro has vowed to use his next term to pull out of the economic death spiral that many people blame him for starting in the first place.

"I am going to lead great economic changes, and I am going to create an economic revolution that will shake the world," he said at his closing campaign Thursday. "Whatever it costs, however long it takes, I will do it."

But during his campaign, he's been doubling down on the same failing policies, taking over the country’s largest private bank, Banesco, forcing companies to slash prices and expropriating others.

It's hard to imagine Maduro, a former transportation worker, changing his economic playbook after the election, Gunson said.

“Maduro, the bus driver, is going to drive the bus over a cliff,” he said.

Maduro’s main rivals in the race are Henri Falcón, the former governor of Lara State, and Javier Bertucci, an evangelical pastor.

While some polls give the men the lead, their chances are being hurt by opposition calls for a boycott. Many in the opposition see Falcón and Bertucci as electoral fall guys, in the race to grant legitimacy to a deeply flawed process. And the international community is treating Maduro’s victory as a foregone conclusion. The United States, Canada and the European Union have said they won’t recognize the election results.

If Maduro was hoping the election might buy him some breathing room, he’s badly mistaken, said María Corina Machado, a former opposition deputy and presidential candidate who has been barred from running for office — along with many of Maduro’s serious rivals.

“If he had any legitimacy left after he supposedly won in 2013, that’s gone beginning on Monday,” she said. “For me, the only thing Maduro is gaining with this election is the illusion of stability. But it’s not sustainable, and the [elections] are going to unleash more repudiation both inside and outside the country.”

It’s hard to imagine things getting much worse in Venezuela.

Five-digit inflation has decimated purchasing power and led to widespread hunger. International sanctions are keeping the government from renegotiating its debt. Oil production — the country’s economic lifeblood and virtually only source of foreign revenue — has collapsed about 40 percent since Maduro took office. Amid the cash crunch, water and power outages have become commonplace. Hospitals often have little more to offer than aspirin. Crime is rampant.

“The economic situation is unbearable, and it’s getting more difficult as [each] day passes,” said Juan Andres Mejia, a Venezuelan congressman with the opposition Voluntad Popular party. “The government will reach a point where it won’t be able to respond to basic needs.”

Maduro is hoping to quell the crisis by calling for talks with the opposition or, perhaps, forming a “unity” government that might include dissenting voices.

But the opposition has been burned in the past by such offers. Negotiations last year in the Dominican Republic helped take the pressure off Maduro, but produced no tangible results. And a unity government would only work if Maduro agreed to obey the constitution and signaled his willingness to abandon power, Mejia said.

Sunday’s elections have also shined a light on the opposition’s internal divisions: While some are backing the boycott, others have decided to support Maduro’s long-shot rivals.

Eldery Alfonzo, a 30-year-old administrative assistant in Caracas, said he was going to vote for Bertucci, despite opposition warnings that such votes legitimize a broken electoral system.

“You never know if your vote will be counted but at least those of us who vote know in our hearts that we tried to do something,” he explained.

But if the opposition wants to be truly viable again it needs to rebuild its organization, craft a clear message and find new, younger and “inspiring” leaders, said Óscar Vallés, the head of the political science department at the Metropolitan University in Caracas.

“Without those three elements, the Venezuelan opposition will continue wandering through this hellish desert,” he said.

Power Struggle?

Barring a strong opposition, Maduro’s biggest threat the next six years may come from within.

The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela is packed with capitalist interests. And as these politically powerful business people see their finances eroded by Maduro’s economic incompetence, it may force divisions, analysts said. In particular, many suspect that former Vice President Diosdado Cabello has his eyes on the Miraflores presidential palace.

“I’m not absolutely sure Maduro’s power will be consolidated on Sunday,” Gunson said. “I’m not sure the elections will resolve the deep problems he has with governability, which is not just to do with the opposition, but also the stresses and strains within the ruling coalition. And those may come to the fore after the elections.”

What is certain is that if Maduro wins the race, the international community will keep tightening the screws. Washington has already slapped more than 60 current and former Venezuelan officials, including Maduro, with financial sanctions. And it has suggested that more may be coming after the election, including a freeze on Venezuelan oil imports.

On Friday, the U.S. Treasury slapped Cabello — along with his brother and wife — with sanctions, accusing him of money laundering and drug trafficking.

Mejia, the opposition deputy, said that sanctions might not have an immediate impact but that they’re critical to keeping pressure on Maduro and his cronies.

“In general, it is important that those who violate human rights in Venezuela, and those who have robbed our country and are responsible for the economic crisis, should know that they will not be able to enjoy their money and travel around the world freely,” he said.

Mejia said that if Maduro does win on Sunday, the opposition needs to redouble its efforts to build a broad coalition and push back against defeatism.

We need to “remind people that we do not deserve to live this way,” Mejia said, “that there is a different possibility.”


Venezuela Has Given Up on Democracy

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Venezuelan Desertions Up....

from Bloomberg
Military officers are joining the exodus of Venezuelans to Colombia and Brazil, fleeing barracks and forcing President Nicolas Maduro’s government to call upon retirees and militia to fill the void.

High desertion rates at bases in Caracas and the countryside are complicating security plans for the presidential election in 13 days, which by law require military custody of electoral materials and machinery at voting centers.

“The number is unknown because it used to be published in the Official Gazette. Now, it is not,” said Rocio San Miguel, director of Control Ciudadano, a military watchdog group in Caracas. She said soldiers are fleeing for the same reason citizens are: “Wages are low, the quality of food and clothing isn’t good.”

Last week, officers who rank as high as general were called in and quartered for several days at their units. Retired officials and militia members were also contacted by their superiors, according to one retired officer who asked not to be named for fear of angering the regime. Government officials are training these fill-in personnel for the election, said a second retired officer.

The shortage of troops comes as hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans flee a societal collapse, crowding cities and makeshift camps throughout the region in the largest mass emigration in modern Latin American history. Hyperinflation has made the currency virtually worthless, and malnutrition is endemic. Almost 2 million Venezuelans are living outside the country.

Amassing Power

As the once-prosperous nation fell apart, Maduro consolidated power by creating an all-powerful assembly to bypass the national legislature. The regime jailed and banned opponents and launched a wave of arrests before the May 20 vote. The U.S. and regional organizations have refused to recognize the balloting as legitimate, and the main opposition coalition has promised a boycott in the face of what it says will be a rigged contest.

Venezuelan elections are overseen by its military, the strongest force in the country and one increasingly intertwined with Maduro’s regime. The rush to fill out units is required by the so-called Plan Republica, the security deployment of the Defense Ministry that begins on the eve of election day and lasts until the day after. By law, the armed forces are guarantors of peace and security, guarding ballots and voting machines at all 14,000-odd voting sites. They transport these materials and machinery to each voting center, often a school, and guard it.

Silent Treatment

But the level of desertion from the Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana has grown exponentially in the last year, especially among troops at lower ranks. At least 10,000 soldiers have asked to retire, Control Ciudadano’s San Miguel said in March.

“Since 2015 there has been an increase in military detainees accused of treason, desertion and other crimes,” she said. “Our estimate is that there are 300 people who are imprisoned, mostly troops. A few are senior officers, others are civilians linked to the military.”

A spokesman for the armed forces didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment on the desertions.

High-ranking members of the military are barred from much contact with the lower ranks . Lines of young military men asking for retirement are long, said the first retired officer. The officer tried to chat with one, but officers running the barracks forbade them from talking to each other. The retiree said top officers fear too much conversation will permit officers and enlisted solders to form alliances for a coup.

“Those who ask to retire are put into arrest for a week at the military counterintelligence headquarters,” said Gonzalo Himiob, director of Foro Penal, a human-rights group. “That’s how worried the government is.”

He said most leave the country after they are released. Himiob said that so many have tried to resign in recent days that the regime has no room to jail them, and many are allowed to quit.

Monday, May 7, 2018

Conoco Deals Knockout Blow to Venezuelan Economy

from Reuters
HOUSTON/CARACAS (Reuters) - U.S. oil firm ConocoPhillips has moved to take Caribbean assets of Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA to enforce a $2 billion arbitration award over a decade-oil nationalization of its projects in the South American country, according to three sources familiar with its actions.

The U.S. firm targeted facilities on the islands of Curacao, Bonaire and St. Eustatius that accounted for about a quarter of Venezuela’s oil exports last year. The three play key roles in processing, storing and blending PDVSA’s oil for export.

The company received court attachments freezing assets at least two of the facilities, and could move to sell them, one of the sources said.

Conoco’s legal maneuvers could further impair PDVSA’s declining oil revenue and the country’s convulsing economy. Venezuela is almost completely dependent on oil exports, which have fallen by a third since its peak and its refineries ran at just 31 percent of capacity in the first quarter.

The Latin American country is in the grip of a deep recession with severe shortages of medicine and food as well as a growing exodus of its people.

PDVSA and the Venezuelan foreign ministry did not respond on Sunday to requests for comment. Dutch authorities said they are assessing the situation on Bonaire.

Conoco’s claims against Venezuela and state-run PDVSA in international courts have totaled $33 billion, the largest by any company.

“Any potential impacts on communities are the result of PDVSA’s illegal expropriation of our assets and its decision to ignore the judgment of the ICC tribunal,” Conoco said in an email to Reuters.

The U.S firm added it will work with the community and local authorities to address issues that may arise as a result of enforcement actions.

PDVSA has significant assets in the Caribbean. On Bonaire, it owns the 10-million-barrel BOPEC terminal which handles logistics and fuel shipments to customers, particularly in Asia. In Aruba, PDVSA and its unit Citgo lease a refinery and a storage terminal.

On the island of St. Eustatius, it rents storage tanks at the Statia terminal, owned by U.S. NuStar Energy, where over 4 million barrels of Venezuelan crude were retained by court order, according to one of the sources.

NuStar is aware of the order and “assessing our legal and commercial options,” said spokesman Chris Cho. The company does not expect the matter to change its earnings outlook, he said.

Conoco also sought to attach PDVSA inventories on Curacao, home of the 335,000-barrel-per-day Isla refinery and Bullenbay oil terminal. But the order could not immediately be enforced, according to two of the sources.

Last year, PDVSA’s shipments from Bonaire and St Eustatius terminals accounted for about 10 percent of its total exports, according to internal figures from the state-run company. The exports were mostly crude and fuel oil for Asian customers including ChinaOil, China’s Zhenhua Oil and India’s Reliance Industries.

From its largest Caribbean operations in Curacao, PDVSA shipped 14 percent of its exports last year, including products exported by its Isla refinery to Caribbean islands and crude from its Bullenbay terminal to buyers of Venezuelan crude all over the world.

PDVSA on Friday ordered its oil tankers sailing across the Caribbean to return to Venezuelan waters and await further instructions, according to a document viewed by Reuters. In the last year, several cargoes of Venezuelan crude have been retained or seized in recent years over unpaid freight fees and related debts.

“This is terrible (for PDVSA),” said a source familiar with the court order of attachment. The state-run company “cannot comply with all the committed volume for exports” and the Conoco action imperils its ability to ship fuel oil to China or access inventories to be exported from Bonaire.

At the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Conoco had sought up to $22 billion from PDVSA for broken contracts and loss of future profits from two oil producing joint ventures, which were nationalized in 2007 under late Venezuela President Hugo Chavez. The U.S. firm left the country after it could not reach a deal to convert its projects into joint ventures controlled by PDVSA.

A separate arbitration case involving the loss of its Venezuelan assets is before a World Bank tribunal, the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes.

Exxon Mobil Corp also has brought two separate arbitration claims over the 2007 nationalization of its projects in Venezuela.

Monday, April 23, 2018

What REALLY Happened in Nicaragua

from Reuters
MANAGUA (Reuters) - Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega said on Sunday a planned overhaul of the welfare system that sparked days of deadly protests had been canceled, as he attempted to end the biggest crisis of his administration.

Ortega has been on the defensive since demonstrations began in much of the country on Wednesday against the plan to increase worker contributions to social security and to lower pensions.

Ensuing unrest killed at least eight people and sparked looting and panic buying, but protests in Managua died down considerably after Ortega’s announcement, according to Reuters witnesses. At least one protest march was planned for Monday.

The pope, the U.S. government and business leaders all urged Ortega to stop the violence before he appeared on television and said the measures approved last week would be withdrawn.

“The previous resolution of April 16, 2018, which was the resolution that kicked off this whole situation, is being revoked, canceled, put aside,” Ortega said.

The government argued welfare changes are needed to bolster Nicaragua’s finances, and Ortega said talks would be held to draft a new plan to strengthen the social security system.

But the government was stung by the protests, which one human rights group said had taken at least 25 lives. Stores in Managua were looted over the weekend, Reuters witnesses said.

Late on Saturday, local media said a reporter was shot and killed during a live broadcast from Bluefields, a town on the Caribbean coast hit by the unrest. Graphic footage of the incident soon spread onto local and social media.

The police crackdown on demonstrators and curbs on some media in the past few days have fueled broader criticism of Ortega, who has tightened his hold on the country’s institutions since he took office for a second time 11 years ago.

The U.S. State Department on Sunday called for “broad-based dialogue” to end the dispute and “restore respect” for human rights, urging the government to let the media operate freely.

“We condemn the violence and the excessive force used by police and others against civilians who are exercising their ... right to freedom of expression and assembly,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in statement.

Lissett Guido, a Red Cross spokeswoman, said there were eight confirmed deaths and that the number could rise. The government had reported “almost 10” by late on Friday.

Marlin Sierra, director of human rights organization CENIDH, said it had logged 25 deaths, mostly caused by firearms and rubber bullets. That number could not be independently verified. Most of the dead were aged between 15 and 34, she said.

Pope Francis called on Sunday for an end to the violence and called for differences to be “resolved peacefully and with a sense of responsibility.”

Videos and photos posted on Nicaraguan media showed people standing ready to defend their stores, while others formed lines to stock up on gasoline and food in case of shortages.

Nicaragua has been one of the more stable countries in Central America, largely avoiding the turmoil caused by gang violence or political upheaval that has at times plagued Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala in recent years.

But top Nicaraguan business lobby COSEP has backed peaceful protests against the government, and said it would not enter talks with Ortega to review the social security plan until he had ended police repression and restored freedom of expression.

A former Marxist guerrilla and Cold War antagonist of the United States, Ortega has presided over a period of stable growth with a blend of socialist policies and capitalism.

But critics accuse Ortega and his wife, Vice President Rosario Murillo, of trying to establish a family dictatorship. The country remains one of the poorest in the Americas.

Thursday, April 5, 2018

Venezuela's Currency is in Freefall

from Bloomberg
Venezuela’s currency is worth even less than previously believed, with new trackers of the black-market rate showing deep discounts compared with the long-standing benchmark gauge.

Rates from the widely watched Dolartoday.com, known for arousing President Nicolas Maduro’s ire on state TV, have lagged behind other markers that show prices about 30 percent weaker. While the U.S.-based website posts a rate of 251,000 bolivars per dollar, DolarPro has it at 362,000 and e-wallet AirTM is selling dollars for 313,000 bolivars each.

“It’s about confidence, and Venezuelans feel that their dollars are worth more than DolarToday rates,” said Henkel Garcia, the director of the Caracas consultancy Econometrica. “In a market lacking information, new indicators will appear, and consumers will ultimately determine their sell price.”

With Venezuelans having limited access to official exchange markets, they’re reliant on websites that track the rate and small exchange platforms to get a sense of what their money is worth. As DolarToday falls out of favor, dollar auctions on Whatsapp groups, sites that host virtual wallets and cryptocurrency exchanges are seen as a better marker of true value. Amid skyrocketing inflation and a massive depreciation of the Venezuelan currency, even local businesses often demand foreign currency for nearly everything they offer.

Any way you count it, the bolivar is worth massively less than just five years ago. The current DolarToday rate has it down 99.99 percent in that time span. Meanwhile inflation in the country has been running at an annual rate of 6,147 percent.

Officials at DolarToday didn’t immediately respond to emails requesting information about how it calculates exchange rates and why it differs significantly from its competitors.

Maduro has long accused DolarToday of publishing artificially weak rates to stoke unrest and undermine his socialist administration. The Venezuelan government unsuccessfully sued the website in 2015 for falsifying exchange rates. More recently, Maduro announced the country’s Petro cryptocurrency would be sold through central bank foreign-currency auctions, to mark “the burial” of various black-market rate tracking platforms.

The same hyperinflation that led low-denomination bills to double as confetti at baseball games and crash deli scales pushed Venezuela to announce it would cut three zeroes off its currency starting June 4. The official rate is currently 49,478 bolivars per dollar.

“The proliferation of these sites will continue as long as the government doesn’t change its economic policy and make economic information more transparent,” said Juan Ignacio Guarino, president of Interbono exchange house, a Caracas-based brokerage.

Monday, March 12, 2018

Failing Oil Production


from Forbes
The pending collapse of Venezuela poses serious short- and long-term challenges for oil markets, but it also contains a silver lining for the OPEC cartel.

Venezuelan oil production has been in decline for the past decade, but output has plunged rapidly in recent months as the OPEC member’s political and economic crisis intensifies bringing state oil company PDVSA to its knees. Venezuela production hit a three-decade low of 1.6 million barrels a day in January, down 20% from the same month a year earlier and off a whopping 600,000 barrels a day from its 2016 average of nearly 2.2 million barrels a day.

The country’s situation will only get worse.

Venezuelan production is likely to fall another 400,000 to 600,000 barrels a day this year – and that assumes President Nicolas Maduro’s beleaguered regime survives. Total collapse of the regime, which the United States could help bring about by imposing tough new sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector, could see output ground to a complete halt.

Much hinges on Venezuela’s presidential elections on May 20. If Maduro uses the election to further consolidate his grip on power, it could prompt Washington to slap the harshest of measures on Caracas. These could include an outright ban on imports of Venezuelan crude, or, more likely, an embargo on U.S. exports of light oil and refined products to the South American country.

Venezuela’s woes have been flagged by the International Energy Agency as a major wild card in oil markets this year that have contributed to the recent firming of crude oil prices, which are sitting at comfortable $65 a barrel on the international benchmark.

Recent gains by crude have been supported by over-compliance by Saudi-led OPEC with its production cut deal involving non-OPEC producers, including Russia, which has helped tighten supply-demand fundamentals significantly. But much of OPEC’s stellar compliance lies with Venezuela’s faltering production.

In February, S&P Global Platts estimated OPEC’s production was 340,000 barrels below its target of 32.73 million barrels a day – but that Venezuela accounted for more than the entire production shortfall.

Venezuela’s meltdown comes at a convenient time for OPEC and provides a convenient hole for U.S. shale growth and keep it from crashing the market again. Because of this spare capacity, OPEC and shale could potentially co-exist profitably in a world of $60-to-$70 a barrel.

The total collapse of Venezuela could bring about a different set of issues. The ensuing chaos and confusion could see Venezuelan exports drop to zero while buyers try to assess who to trust in Caracas.

Venezuela’s precarious financial position has already hampered its oil trade. Courts in the Netherlands Antilles have already permitted PDVSA creditors to seize two of the company’s oil cargoes in recent months. Cash-strapped Venezuela was found to be in “selective default” in November and efforts to restructure its debt have gone nowhere in part because of existing U.S. sanctions restricting its access to financial markets. A regime collapse could see oil prices spike as much as $10 a barrel, but a combination of “on-command” Saudi spare capacity and release of strategic reserves would likely make that boost only temporary.

President Trump’s administration wields much power over Caracas because the United States is Venezuela’s largest crude customer – although U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil have fallen sharply over the past year due to the OPEC member’s upstream problems and, to a lesser extent, fears of violating existing sanctions.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), we imported 442,000 barrels a day from Venezuela through February 9 of this year – a big drop from the 749,000-barrels-a-day level over the same period last year.

Refiners everywhere are complaining about the deteriorating quality of Venezuelan crude; here lies another area where we have leverage over Caracas. Washington could apply sanctions banning U.S. exports of the light oil PDVSA needs to mix as diluent into its super-heavy crude. Restrictions on sales of gasoline and diesel to Venezuela are under consideration, too. Some refiners remain wary of new sanctions, but many others say they could adjust by replacing Venezuelan crude with similar grades from Canada, Saudi Arabia, West Africa or elsewhere.

The bottom line is that there is no quick fix for PDVSA’s state of disrepair. For years it has suffered from an exodus of talent. The country’s humanitarian crisis and rapid inflation rate – which has risen to over 4,000% over the past year – has exacerbated the brain drain; Venezuelan refugees are now pouring into neighboring countries. Reviving the country’s oil sector will be a major endeavor, requiring not only massive investment but a bottom-up approach to rebuilding the state oil giant. PDVSA’s $65 billion debt makes Maduro’s promise of recovering 70% of lost oil production volumes in the first half of 2018 simply impossible.

It will take substantial time for Venezuela to rebuild trust with international oil companies and service contractors, who are owed substantial sums by PDVSA. Still, even as the national government teeters on the brink of collapse, Venezuela’s 300 billion barrels of reserves remain tantalizing to many international oil companies – and the reason why they stuck it out under difficult conditions under Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Under the right fiscal conditions, the oil industry insists that Venezuela’s reserves can be extracted profitably. For that to happen, though, a credible and creditworthy government must emerge in Caracas. ​

Saturday, March 10, 2018

Monday, March 5, 2018

Voting with their feet: Venezuelan flight from socialism is now a human wave

from American Thinker
Socialist Venezuela, the "sea of happiness" whose system was touted by Sean Penn, Oliver Stone, Joe Kennedy, Bernie Sanders, Cindy Sheehan, and others, is losing its people. A lot of people. The nation of nominally 28 million people has now seen as many as four million flee for their lives, unable to stand all that "sea of happiness."

That's one out of seven Venezuelans, a figure even worse than the one out of ten who have fled Castro's Cuban island hellhole for the exact same reason: socialism. The Venezuelan human waves are just beginning. And it's going to get a lot worse. It's time to start thinking about what can be done about this disaster.

The Post compares the Venezuelan refugee exodus to Europe's 2015 mass migration of Syrian refugees and 2017's Rohingya exodus from Burma. In reality, it's bigger, because it's connected to Latin America's other two refugee crises cited by the Post: the millions of Cubans who fled Cuba's socialism through the 1960s, 1980s, and present day, and the million refugees from El Salvador, whose crisis was brought on by Cuban-backed communist guerrillas. Venezuela, which is Cuban-run, is now seeing its human waves for the same reasons. Same socialism, different horror.

The Washington Post describes how desperate Venezuelans are now "pouring out" of that explicitly socialist paradise and have now turned up on sidewalks, in parks, and in cheap motels in neighboring Colombia as well as nearly every nation in Latin America not bearing a socialist label. Chile has seen the highest percentage increase of more than 1,000%, according to the Post. Colombia, the country next door, has seen the highest absolute numbers, at least 600,000, with only 150,000 in the country legally. The fact that these Venezuelans are going to Colombia instead of the distant U.S., as Central America's migrants are doing now, is a sign that they are real refugees, not economic migrants. Real refugees take any port in a storm, including a relatively poor country. Real refugees suffer not just economic privation but political persecution, which is part and parcel of socialism. Venezuelans are imprisoned and tortured for dissident views, as the Post reports. Their leaders are barred from running for office. They themselves are terrorized by government motorcycle gangs, which control their food ration cards and demand votes for the ruling party as conditions for getting them. Their vote is not secret. Cubans control their identification card system. Elections, since at least 2004, (when Jimmy Carter naively certified as free and fair a recall referendum), have borne heavy signs of fraud. It's not just wanting a better economic situation that is driving them out. Even on the economic front, the problems are political - with businesses expropriated, homes burned out by government goons, and workers fired for not voting the party line. But, being impoverished by socialism's worthless money, Colombia is as far as fleeing Venezuelans can get.

The Post quotes a particularly idiotic United Nations official who dismisses the reality that they are refugees because bombs are not falling:
"People fleeing Syria were generally seen as refugees, but that's not the case with Venezuelans," Merkx said. "Venezuela is not being bombed. It has some of the dimensions [of a refugee crisis], but not all Venezuelans are refugees."
What he fails to understand is that socialism is war against people, every bit as bad as physical war. The final days of the Soviet Union, where Aleksander Solzhenitsyn spoke of "spiritual exhaustion," made for the same agony and trauma that Venezuelans are now enduring. Socialism mobilizes people for war, constantly, and its countries even look like war zones. And every one of these hellholes experiences millions of people fleeing for their lives, at least until the doors are bolted shut, which may happen in Venezuela, too.

The Post deserves some credit for reporting this, because the downstream media, such as television, which take their cue from what's in the papers, aren't picking these stories up. Hot Air's John Sexton rightly notes that the silence is there out of the domestic left's embarrassment about the real impact of socialism. The Post could do better by including the word "socialism" in its reportage, but at least they are expending the time and high expense of reporting such stories. All the same, they lose the meaning of their stories by not singling out socialism.

That they are not, and the broader media is silent, is a problem, because our Millennial generation here largely thinks socialism is preferable to capitalism.

In the foreign policy circles, the talk is all about how to provide for the refugees instead of strike at the root of why people choose to become refugees in the first place, which is socialism, and the brutal regime that is driving one out of seven of its citizens from their homeland. Until the socialist roots of this nightmare are adequately exposed in a Nuremburg-style discrediting, the refugee flood will all be just a big bill for the U.S. and Latin American taxpayers and a subsidy to the Venezuelan socialist ruling class running this country into the ground.

Thursday, January 18, 2018

CNN Interview Leads to Assassination

from the Miami Herald
Venezuelan government officials on Tuesday confirmed the death of a former police officer turned rebel, following a shootout in a village outside of Caracas.

Interior Minister Néstor Reverol said Óscar Pérez and six others were killed in Monday’s deadly assault that included rocket launchers and grenades. He added that the rebel group's hideout was unveiled as a result of a Pérez interview with CNN en Español.

“With the progressive use of special forces, unfortunately, we had to neutralize seven terrorists of this cell who are: Daniel Soto, Abraham Lugo, José Alejandro Díaz Pimentel, Óscar Pérez, Jairo Ramos, Abraham Agostino and a woman yet to be identified,” announced Reverol.

“The interview that a channel did helped in the investigation that yesterday took us to kilometer 16 sector Araguaney where this terrorist cell was,” he said. “This heavily armed terrorist group maliciously started a confrontation, generating two fatal victims of the security force and eight injured PNB (national police) officers during a strong confrontation.”
- btw - isn't it funny how you can label as "terrorist" a "woman yet to be identified?"

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Monday, January 8, 2018